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Statometrics
Statometrics Academy · free

The maths of betting,
taught honestly

Most bettors lose, and most “winning systems” are luck. This is where you learn to tell the difference: one question per lesson, a worked Betfair example, a calculator you can move, and a quick check at the end.

8 modules · 42 lessons · 130 methods in the Model Library

Before you start

This is a comprehensive academy, with over 200 pages. You won’t need most of it on day one, and you certainly won’t need every tool. Start with Module 1, go slowly, and let each idea settle before you move on.

You can find systems and edges without any of this. But if you’re serious about making money from the markets, a sound grounding in statistics is what lets you understand what’s really going on: why something works, when it’s only luck, and when it has quietly stopped working.

It may feel like a lot at first. That’s normal: this is a progression, not a test. Give it time and dedication and you’ll understand betting better than the great majority of people who do it.

You don’t have to finish it to benefit. Everything Statometrics builds rests on these principles: the sample sizes, the p-values, the seasons held back, the closing line. Even before you can follow every step, you’ll see them at work in our numbers.

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Module 1 · Luck or skill?

  1. 1.1
    The bell curve, t-statistics and p-values
    Is my profit real or just luck?
  2. 1.2
    Standard deviation and variance
    How much should my results swing?
  3. 1.3
    Confidence intervals
    What range could my true ROI be in?
  4. 1.4
    Fat tails: when the bell curve lies
    Why do "impossible" results keep happening?
  5. 1.5
    Sample size
    How many bets do I need before I know?

Module 2 · Odds and the market

  1. 2.1
    Implied probability
    What is this price actually saying?
  2. 2.2
    Overround and removing the margin
    What are the fair odds without the margin?
  3. 2.3
    Expected value and commission
    Is this bet worth placing after commission?
  4. 2.4
    Closing line value
    Am I beating the market, whatever the results?
  5. 2.5
    Market efficiency and favourite-longshot bias
    Where is the market most often wrong?

Module 3 · Probability foundations

  1. 3.1
    And, or, not: the rules of probability
    How do I combine chances correctly?
  2. 3.2
    Conditional probability
    How does a goal change the odds?
  3. 3.3
    Bayes' theorem
    How should team news change my view?
  4. 3.4
    Independence and correlation
    Why are same-game combinations priced the way they are?
  5. 3.5
    Law of large numbers and the gambler's fallacy
    Is a result "due"?

Module 4 · Modelling the sport

  1. 4.1
    The Poisson distribution
    How do you model goals?
  2. 4.2
    From Poisson to correct score and over/under
    How do I price a whole match from two numbers?
  3. 4.3
    Dixon-Coles
    Why do simple models get 0-0s wrong?
  4. 4.4
    Markov chains for tennis
    How do points turn into match odds?
  5. 4.5
    The normal distribution for points spreads
    How do you price basketball and NFL lines?
  6. 4.6
    Racing: from win odds to forecasts
    How do I price forecasts and places?

Module 5 · Ratings and models

  1. 5.1
    Elo ratings
    How do I rate teams from results alone?
  2. 5.2
    Shrinkage
    Why does 3 wins from 3 mean almost nothing?
  3. 5.3
    Regression: linear and logistic
    How do I turn stats into a win probability?
  4. 5.4
    Conditional logit for racing
    How do the pro racing models work?
  5. 5.5
    Machine learning
    When does ML help and when does it just memorise noise?

Module 6 · Staking and bankroll

  1. 6.1
    The Kelly criterion
    How much should I stake?
  2. 6.2
    Fractional Kelly
    Why do the pros bet less than Kelly says?
  3. 6.3
    Risk of ruin
    What are the chances I go bust?
  4. 6.4
    Drawdowns and losing runs
    What does normal bad luck look like?
  5. 6.5
    Why staking systems fail
    Can martingale or Fibonacci beat the maths?

Module 7 · Proving your edge is real

  1. 7.1
    Calibration
    When I say 30%, does it happen 30% of the time?
  2. 7.2
    Brier score and log loss
    How do I score a probability model?
  3. 7.3
    Spotting when your edge has gone
    Has my strategy stopped working, or is this just a bad run?
  4. 7.4
    Overfitting and multiple testing
    Why do backtests lie?
  5. 7.5
    Building an honest backtest
    What must my backtest include?
  6. 7.6
    Walk-forward testing
    How do I test without cheating?

Module 8 · Exchange trading maths

  1. 8.1
    Back, lay and greening up
    How do I lock in profit?
  2. 8.2
    Tick sizes and scalping
    What is one tick worth at each price?
  3. 8.3
    Weight of money and the order book
    Does the queue predict the next move?
  4. 8.4
    Mean reversion vs momentum
    Will this price come back or keep going?
  5. 8.5
    In-play price movement
    Why do prices drift, then jump?
18+ only. Educational content, not financial or betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. If gambling stops being fun, get free, confidential help at BeGambleAware.org.
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