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Statometrics
STATOMETRICS ACADEMY
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Tools

The calculators, on their own

Each one comes from a lesson. Use it on your own numbers here, or read the lesson to see what it’s telling you.

Lesson 1.1
Is my profit real or just luck?
The bell curve, t-statistics and p-values
Lesson 1.2
How much should my results swing?
Standard deviation and variance
Lesson 1.3
What range could my true ROI be in?
Confidence intervals
Lesson 1.4
Why do "impossible" results keep happening?
Fat tails: when the bell curve lies
Lesson 1.5
How many bets do I need before I know?
Sample size
Lesson 2.1
What is this price actually saying?
Implied probability
Lesson 2.2
What are the fair odds without the margin?
Overround and removing the margin
Lesson 2.3
Is this bet worth placing after commission?
Expected value and commission
Lesson 2.4
Am I beating the market, whatever the results?
Closing line value
Lesson 3.3
How should team news change my view?
Bayes' theorem
Lesson 3.5
Is a result "due"?
Law of large numbers and the gambler's fallacy
Lesson 4.1
How do you model goals?
The Poisson distribution
Lesson 4.2
How do I price a whole match from two numbers?
From Poisson to correct score and over/under
Lesson 4.4
How do points turn into match odds?
Markov chains for tennis
Lesson 4.6
How do I price forecasts and places?
Racing: from win odds to forecasts
Lesson 5.1
How do I rate teams from results alone?
Elo ratings
Lesson 5.2
Why does 3 wins from 3 mean almost nothing?
Shrinkage
Lesson 6.1
How much should I stake?
The Kelly criterion
Lesson 6.2
Why do the pros bet less than Kelly says?
Fractional Kelly
Lesson 6.3
What are the chances I go bust?
Risk of ruin
Lesson 6.4
What does normal bad luck look like?
Drawdowns and losing runs
Lesson 6.5
Can martingale or Fibonacci beat the maths?
Why staking systems fail
Lesson 7.1
When I say 30%, does it happen 30% of the time?
Calibration
Lesson 7.3
Has my strategy stopped working, or is this just a bad run?
Spotting when your edge has gone
Lesson 7.4
Why do backtests lie?
Overfitting and multiple testing
Lesson 8.1
How do I lock in profit?
Back, lay and greening up
Lesson 8.2
What is one tick worth at each price?
Tick sizes and scalping
Lesson 8.5
Why do prices drift, then jump?
In-play price movement
18+ only. Educational content, not financial or betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. If gambling stops being fun, get free, confidential help at BeGambleAware.org.
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