Up: how often it came in · dashed line: perfect calibration · faint line: the truth you set
Forecasts
1,000
Average gap (ECE)
3.1 pts
Brier score
0.183
Verdict
Some buckets out of line: look closer
1 bucket is more than 2 standard errors off the diagonal (amber dots).
Bucket
n
Avg forecast
Came in
Actual rate
Gap
SE
Gap in SEs
0–10%
50
7.2%
4
8.0%
+0.8 pts
3.7 pts
+0.21
10–20%
117
14.9%
17
14.5%
-0.4 pts
3.3 pts
-0.12
20–30%
112
24.6%
26
23.2%
-1.4 pts
4.1 pts
-0.35
30–40%
108
34.7%
31
28.7%
-6.0 pts
4.6 pts
-1.30
40–50%
113
44.9%
47
41.6%
-3.3 pts
4.7 pts
-0.71
50–60%
142
54.9%
66
46.5%
-8.5 pts
4.2 pts
-2.03
60–70%
97
65.1%
64
66.0%
+0.9 pts
4.8 pts
+0.19
70–80%
121
74.9%
94
77.7%
+2.8 pts
3.9 pts
+0.72
80–90%
96
84.6%
80
83.3%
-1.3 pts
3.7 pts
-0.35
90–100%
44
92.5%
41
93.2%
+0.7 pts
4.0 pts
+0.18
Each dot is a bucket of forecasts: across is what the model said on average, up is how often it actually came in. Dots are sized by how many forecasts they hold. Inside the shaded band, the gap could just be luck.
18+ only. Educational content, not financial or betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. If gambling stops being fun, get free, confidential help at BeGambleAware.org.