Place chances add to 200.00% (should be 2 × 100%).
Forecasts
Forecast A→B
11.03%
Fair
9.07
Reverse A/B
20.85%
Fair
4.80
Tricast A→B→C
4.450%
Fair
22.47
Second place, given the winner
Rows are the winner, columns the runner-up.
Won
A
B
C
D
E
F
A
·
34.6
26.4
17.3
13.2
8.5
B
41.7
·
23.5
15.4
11.8
7.6
C
38.9
28.7
·
14.4
11.0
7.1
D
36.2
26.7
20.4
·
10.2
6.6
E
35.0
25.9
19.8
12.9
·
6.4
F
33.9
25.0
19.1
12.5
9.5
·
The favourite A wins 31.9% of the time once the margin is out, and finishes in the first 2 58.1% of the time: a fair place price of 1.72 on plain Harville.
Check a Betfair price: A to place (top 2)
Model chance 58.09%, fair price 1.721.
Type a price to see if it’s value. Break-even after commission is 1.736.
Plain Harville is known to over-rate favourites for places. Try a discount of 0.8.
Harville assumes that once the winner is gone, the rest share the remaining chance in proportion to their win chances. The discount power below 1 flattens that for 2nd and 3rd, pulling favourites back.
18+ only. Educational content, not financial or betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. If gambling stops being fun, get free, confidential help at BeGambleAware.org.