Why do prices drift, then jump? — Statometrics Academy calculator

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Home expected goals1.50

Away expected goals1.10

Minute0'

Price on a log scale. Triangles mark goals: home, away.

Score at 0'

0-0

Home goals left

1.50

Away goals left

1.10

No goal next 10 min

74.9%

Market	Chance	Fair price
Home	46.4%	2.15
Draw	25.8%	3.88
Away	27.8%	3.60
Over 2.5	48.2%	2.08
Under 2.5	51.8%	1.93

At 0' and 0-0, the draw is 3.88 and Over 2.5 is 2.08. With no goal, every minute that passes takes goals out of the match: the draw shortens and the overs drift.

Fair prices from two Poisson scoring rates. The scoring rate is constant through the match and stoppage time is ignored. Prices beyond 1000 (Betfair's maximum) are shown as —.