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Calculator · from Lesson 6.4

What does normal bad luck look like?

What it’s telling you, step by step: Lesson 6.4: Drawdowns and losing runs

Try it · Losing run simulator
-500+50+100Break even02004006008001,000
━ one bettor each━ the median bettor
In a loss after 1,000
19.4%
Median longest losing run
14
1 in 7 see a run of
17+
Median worst drawdown
38 pts
Win rate 35.0% · profit per £1 after commission +3.60p · formula's typical longest run 13.6 · 1 in 20 see a drawdown of 73 points or more
Every one of these bettors has a real edge, yet about 19 in 100 are still behind after 1,000 bets, and a losing run of 14 in a row is normal. Write your tripwires down before you start, and judge a bad run on closing line value, not P&L.
Level stakes, P&L in points (1 point = 1 stake, so at £10 stakes 36 points is £360). The percentages come from 4,000 simulated bettors; the chart draws the first 20. "Run again" deals a fresh set of results.
18+ only. Educational content, not financial or betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. If gambling stops being fun, get free, confidential help at BeGambleAware.org.
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