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Calculator · from Lesson 6.5

Can martingale or Fibonacci beat the maths?

What it’s telling you, step by step: Lesson 6.5: Why staking systems fail

Try it · Staking system simulator
Staking system
Bets per player
Players
£0£2,000£4,000£6,000Start02004006008001,000
━ one Martingale player each━ median bank✕ couldn't place the next stake
SystemIn profitStoppedMean P&LMedian P&LMean turnoverLoss as % of turnover
Martingale19.2%93.8%−£49.70−£470.20£8,442-0.59%
Expected: EV per £1 × 100 = -1.00%. Martingale's mean swings more from run to run, because a few huge losses decide it.
Final P&L of every Martingale player
−£1000 to −£796: 9.8% of players−£796 to −£592: 20.2% of players−£592 to −£389: 32.2% of players−£389 to −£185: 13.6% of players−£185 to £19: 5.5% of players£19 to £223: 4.2% of players£223 to £426: 3.8% of players£426 to £630: 0.9% of players£630 to £834: 0.7% of players£834 to £1038: 0.7% of players£1038 to £1241: 0.7% of players£1241 to £1445: 0.7% of players£1445 to £1649: 0.5% of players£1649 to £1853: 0.5% of players£1853 to £2056: 0.0% of players£2056 to £2260: 0.0% of players£2260 to £2464: 0.0% of players£2464 to £2668: 0.0% of players£2668 to £2871: 0.0% of players£2871 to £3075: 0.0% of players£3075 to £3279: 0.0% of players£3279 to £3483: 0.0% of players£3483 to £3686: 0.0% of players£3686 to £3890: 0.0% of players£3890 to £4094: 0.0% of players£4094 to £4298: 0.0% of players£4298 to £4501: 0.0% of players£4501 to £4705: 0.1% of players£4705 to £4909: 0.7% of players£4909 to £5113: 2.8% of players£5113 to £5316: 2.1% of players£5316 to £5520: 0.4% of players£0£2,000£4,000
The martingale ladder from a £1000 bank
Loss no.StakeTotal lost
1£10.20£10.20
2£20.62£30.82
3£41.65£72.47
4£84.16£156.63
5£170.03£326.66
6£343.53£670.20
7£694.08can't afford it
A cycle fails with 6 straight losses: 1 in 64, costing £670.20. Every other cycle wins £10. EV per cycle: −£0.63.
Each player starts with £1000 and stops early if they can't cover the next stake. 10,000 players per system; the chart draws 20 of them. Larger runs take a moment.
18+ only. Educational content, not financial or betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. If gambling stops being fun, get free, confidential help at BeGambleAware.org.
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