How do you model goals? — Statometrics Academy calculator

Try it · Poisson explorer

Expected goals (λ)1.50

0 goals

22.31%

2 goals

25.10%

Over 2.5

19.12%

Fair Over 2.5

5.231

Line	Over	Fair	Under	Fair
0.5	77.69%	1.287	22.31%	4.482
1.5	44.22%	2.262	55.78%	1.793
2.5	19.12%	5.231	80.88%	1.236
3.5	6.56%	15.234	93.44%	1.070
4.5	1.86%	53.833	98.14%	1.019

With 1.50 goals expected there’s a 22.3% chance of none at all, and Over 2.5 is 19.1%, a fair price of 5.23.

Check a Betfair price: Match Over 2.5

Model chance 19.12%, fair price 5.231.

Betfair back price

Commission

Type a price to see if it’s value. Break-even after commission is 5.318.

Mean and variance are both λ. The bars run 0 to 9 and a final 10+, so they always add to 100%.