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Calculator · from Lesson 6.3

What are the chances I go bust?

What it’s telling you, step by step: Lesson 6.3: Risk of ruin

Try it · Risk of ruin
Horizon for the "within" figures
Ever lose half the bank
40.1%
Ever go bust
16.1%
Within 1,000 bets: halved 32.2%, bust 8.82% (4,000 simulated bankrolls)
100%10%1%0.1%0.01%2% stake: 16.1%5%10%15%20%
Stake as % of starting bank
Win rate 35.0%Per £1 after commission +3.60pr = 0.03653Quick version 0.03612
Your bank is 50 stakes deep (£20.00 a bet). For a 1% risk of ruin you'd need about 127 stakes (£2540 at this stake size).
Assumes level stakes and independent bets. The top two figures are for betting forever; the “within” figures come from a quick simulation.
18+ only. Educational content, not financial or betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. If gambling stops being fun, get free, confidential help at BeGambleAware.org.
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