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Calculator · from Lesson 1.5

How many bets do I need before I know?

What it’s telling you, step by step: Lesson 1.5: Sample size

Try it · Sample size
Significance
Power
Bets needed
6,376
About 319 weeks (6.1 years) at 20 bets a week.
To reach t = 2
4,125 bets
Win rate
53.3%
SD per £1
0.963
To prove a 3.0% edge at 1.95 on results alone takes about 6.1 years at this rate. To reach t = 2 on average: 4,125 bets.
Bets to reach t = 2 (2.0% commission)
Odds2%3%5%10%
1.54,7942,106739172
2.09,7924,3491,562387
3.019,7888,8353,209818
5.039,78017,8086,5021,681
10.089,76040,23914,7343,837
Power is the chance a real edge of this size actually shows up as significant by the end. Closing line value gets an answer far sooner.
18+ only. Educational content, not financial or betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. If gambling stops being fun, get free, confidential help at BeGambleAware.org.
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