Markets coveredMatch OddsCorrect ScoreOver / UnderFirst HalfSecond Half
Statometrics
Calculator · from Lesson 4.2

How do I price a whole match from two numbers?

What it’s telling you, step by step: Lesson 4.2: From Poisson to correct score and over/under

Try it · Score grid builder
Dixon-Coles
Home goals down the side, away goals across the top. Draws are outlined.
H\A012345
06.727.394.071.490.410.09
110.7511.836.512.390.660.14
28.609.465.201.910.520.12
34.595.052.781.020.280.06
41.842.021.110.410.110.02
50.590.650.360.130.040.01
Grid adds up to 99.9999%. Figures are % chance; tap for the fair price.
Home
48.96%
Draw
24.89%
Away
26.15%
Over 2.5
50.64%
Match OddsChanceFair
Home48.96%2.043
Draw24.89%4.018
Away26.15%3.824
Both scoreChanceFair
Yes53.24%1.878
No46.76%2.139
OverChanceFair
Over 0.593.28%1.072
Over 1.575.13%1.331
Over 2.550.64%1.975
Over 3.528.59%3.498
Over 4.513.71%7.294
UnderChanceFair
Under 0.56.72%14.879
Under 1.524.87%4.022
Under 2.549.36%2.026
Under 3.571.41%1.400
Under 4.586.29%1.159
Most likely scoresChanceFair
1-111.83%8.454
1-010.75%9.300
2-19.46%10.568
2-08.60%11.625
0-17.39%13.527
From 1.60 and 1.10 expected goals: home 2.04, draw 4.02, away 3.82. The most likely score is 1-1 at 11.83%, and still loses more than 8 times in 10.
Check a Betfair price: Correct score 1-1
Model chance 11.83%, fair price 8.454.
Type a price to see if it’s value. Break-even after commission is 8.607.
Every square is home chance × away chance for that pair of scores. Tap a square or a row to price it. The totals use every score up to 10 each side, not just the ones shown.
18+ only. Educational content, not financial or betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. If gambling stops being fun, get free, confidential help at BeGambleAware.org.
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