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Calculator · from Lesson 5.2

Why does 3 wins from 3 mean almost nothing?

What it’s telling you, step by step: Lesson 5.2: Shrinkage

Try it · Shrinkage demo
How strong is the pull?
League 52.0%Shrunk 58.3%Raw 83.3%0%100%
Raw rate
83.3%
Shrunk estimate
58.3%
Weight on record
20.0%
k
24.0
60%80%6 games: 58.3%120406080100
Games played, if the team keeps a 83% rate╌ raw ┈ league ━ shrunk
UsingFair oddsEV per £1 at 1.60
Raw rate1.200+£0.3233
Shrunk1.716−£0.0746
The raw rate says this is a bet; the shrunk estimate says it isn't. With only 6 games, trust the shrunk 58.3%.
The team's record gets 20% of the say. It earns more with every game.
18+ only. Educational content, not financial or betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. If gambling stops being fun, get free, confidential help at BeGambleAware.org.
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