As percentages: 0.54% · 0.85% · 8.2%. Expected P&L £163 (£0.82 a bet). Average winners: 15.0, SD 3.72 (clumpy 6.44). Clumping 0.010 means the true rate itself wobbles by about ±2.6%.
The bell curve says 1 in 186. Allowing for clumping, it's 1 in 12, about 15.3 times as likely.
Run
Bell
Exact
Clumpy
23+ (2 SD)
1 in 45
1 in 36
1 in 7.9
27+ (3 SD)
1 in 990
1 in 448
1 in 19
30+ (4 SD)
1 in 20,167
1 in 4,417
1 in 40
The bad count is the number of bets that go against you: winners for a lay. The bell curve assumes a smooth, symmetric world; the exact count is right for independent bets; the clumpy line lets the true rate wobble from week to week, which is what real bets do.
18+ only. Educational content, not financial or betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. If gambling stops being fun, get free, confidential help at BeGambleAware.org.