How do points turn into match odds? — Statometrics Academy calculator

Try it · Tennis Markov calculator

Player A wins on own serve65.0%

Player B wins on own serve62.0%

Format

Sets won by A

Sets won by B

1 · Point

A65.0%

B62.0%

2 · Hold

A82.96%

B77.59%

3 · Set

A59.90%

4 · Match

A64.66%

A breaks B

22.41%

B breaks A

17.04%

A wins tiebreak

54.95%

Fair price A

1.547

Fair price B

2.830

Sets (A-B)	A wins match	Fair A
0-0	64.66%	1.547
1-0	83.92%	1.192
0-1	35.88%	2.787
1-1	59.90%	1.669

One more point of A’s serve % (66.0%) moves the match to 69.11%.

A gap of 3.0 points on serve becomes a 59.9% set and a 64.7% match for A. Each rung of the ladder widens the gap.

Check a Betfair price: Player A to win

Model chance 64.66%, fair price 1.547.

Betfair back price

Commission

Type a price to see if it’s value. Break-even after commission is 1.558.

Simplification: every set, including the last, has a standard 7-point tiebreak at 6-6. Each point depends only on who's serving, not on the score, momentum or nerves.