Chance of a loss is the exact count; the bell-curve shortcut gives 21.0%.
After 1,000 bets, anything from −£533 to £1,253 is normal for this strategy. A bettor with exactly this edge finishes behind 20% of the time.
Each faint line is one bettor with exactly this edge. The bold line is what they should make on average; the dark band is ±1 standard deviation and the light band ±2. Anything inside the light band is normal luck.
18+ only. Educational content, not financial or betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. If gambling stops being fun, get free, confidential help at BeGambleAware.org.